The cost of waiting for "safe"

I sat down at the kitchen table this morning before anyone else was up. Just me, a coffee, and the silence of the backyard.

I was thinking about a project I did on the fence last summer. I spent three weeks researching the "perfect" wood treatment, waiting for a specific weather window, and asking neighbors for their opinions. By the time I actually started, the price of lumber had ticked up, and I’d lost half the season of actually enjoying the yard.

We do this with our money constantly. We call it "being prudent." But often, we’re just waiting for a feeling of safety that doesn't actually exist in the markets. According to data on market timing risks, retail investors are most likely to move capital only after it has reached peak public sentiment.

"The goal isn’t to be a gambler. It’s to recognize that by the time a trend is obvious at a Saturday BBQ, the entry price already reflects that."

In plain English: we wait until everyone else says it’s okay. But as a provider, your job isn't to follow the crowd. It’s to build a foundation before the crowd makes it too expensive to afford.

The Tip: Look at your watchlist today. If you’re hesitating on a move where the data — user growth, revenue, EBITDA — is already solid, ask yourself: am I waiting for more facts, or am I just waiting for the crowd to give me permission?

The most expensive thing you can buy in any market is the feeling of being 100% certain.

— Daniel Mercer

Founder, The Provider